Trilogy’s Bill McKenna published on Homeland Security Today with article on predictive AI

Randall Cottle
Nov 10
2 min read

“Predictive artificial intelligence (AI) can help first responders act before chaos hits.”

That is how AI expert Bill McKenna describes his article “Predictive AI at the Tactical Edge: Lessons from Operationalizing Emergency Management During Civil Unrest,” published by the Government Technology & Services Coalition’s Homeland Security Today.

McKenna, Vice President of Strategic Programs and Government Affairs at Trilogy Innovations, Inc., holds a MPS degree in Homeland Security from George Washington University.

Using a simulated protest scenario near critical infrastructure, the project demonstrated how AI tools, such as time-series forecasting, geographic information system (GIS) mapping, and sensor fusion, can improve tactical decision-making, resource deployment, and situational awareness.

“AI isn’t just for Silicon Valley,” said McKenna. “It’s now a tactical tool for emergency managers. Think about the movie ‘Minority Report,’ but for traffic patterns and crowd movement.”

McKenna explained that during a simulated protest near a power plant, AI models used social data, weather, and maps to predict where things might go wrong. Instead of waiting for 911 calls, responders got a heads up on where to stage people and gear. The result? Fewer surprises and fewer headlines. And the lights stayed on.

“The process worked, but the humans didn’t always trust it,” said McKenna. “Emergency managers didn’t want a black box telling them what to do. Trust had to be earned. The AI had to explain why it predicted a flashpoint and show how confident it was. Transparency turned skeptics into believers.”

McKenna said that predictive AI could be a major step forward in emergency management around the world. For advances in the field, he calls for:

AI tools built for responders, not data scientists;
pre-event data sharing, so that people are not scrambling in the midst of the crisis;
Federal AI playbooks, which would help address any given scenario; and
a DHS/FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)-led working group to help make AI in emergency management a national standard.

Click here to see the article abstract and background, and to download McKenna’s full article in PDF format.